The Caribbean region is world-renowned for its beaches, great weather, and culture, and is a premier tourist destination globally (1). Tourism is a key generator of foreign exchange earnings across the region, accounting for 42% of total exports, 26% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and 35% of employment (2). This makes the region a tourism-dependent one.
The Caribbean tourism model centres mostly around the 3S’s, that is – sun, sea, and sand along the coast. International travellers, predominantly from North America and Europe, comprise the majority of visitors who come to the region mostly by air. 3S tourism is a mass tourism model with little emphasis placed on domestic tourism. Domestic tourism involves locals travelling within the borders of their own country to enjoy tourism services.
Apart from 3S tourism, other tourism models exist: eco-tourism, sports tourism, health tourism, and community-based tourism. I refer to these as non-3S tourism, which remains largely under-developed in the Caribbean, compared to 3S tourism.
The 3S tourism model is climate-sensitive as the region is prone to extreme climatic events, such as hurricanes and storms. Many outdoors activities can be impacted as they rely on specific weather conditions for success, e.g. snorkelling, scuba diving, swimming, and excursions. Importantly, when a hurricane strikes, it can wipe out more than the entire GDP of an island, as was the case in Dominica. There, an estimated 226% of GDP was destroyed by Hurricane Maria in 2017 (3).
The climate change projections for the Caribbean region include more intense hurricanes, (especially in categories 4 and 5) by the end of the century, with sea levels also expected to rise (4). This is likely to translate into more wind, rainfall, and tidal events; resulting in damage to buildings, roadways, livestock, and even loss of life.
COVID-19 AND 3S TOURISM
In 2020, the globe faced the novel corona virus (Covid-19), and to date, there have been over 560 million cases and almost 6.4 million deaths (5). Due to the rapid spread of the virus and several waves later, many travel restrictions were instituted by governments across the globe. These included: travel bans, quarantine impositions, vaccine mandates, Covid-19 testing at borders, as well as dozens of borders being completely closed. This negatively affected Caribbean tourism by a reduction in the number of international visitors to the region. In 2020, tourist arrivals to the region fell to just over 11 million, a decline of 65.5 per cent when compared to the 32 million tourist visits in 2019 (6). Hotel Workers were laid off and many tourism businesses had to pivot, some focusing more on domestic tourism (7).
Climate Change and the Covid-19 virus have therefore highlighted the vulnerability of the Caribbean tourism sector and further exposed the fragility of Caribbean economies.
How should tourism operators and investors earn and navigate around so much uncertainty? Should Caribbean governments consider investing in non-3S tourism models as viable alternatives to 3S tourism?
A PROPOSAL
While pursuing a master’s degree at the University of Tokyo in Japan (8), my thesis compared the current 3S tourism model to a non-3S tourism model: specifically, community-based tourism, which was away from the coast. The aim was to determine which model was more or less vulnerable to climate change. This, of course, is based on the premise that international visitors could choose other destinations, aside from the Caribbean if they could not access ‘our’ world-famous sun, sea and sand. My master’s thesis results concluded that non-3S tourism models (9) were less vulnerable to the effects of climate change than 3S tourism, and that more financial investments should be placed into non-3S tourism.
The million-dollar questions are, however: how much revenue can non-3S tourism really generate in the short to medium term? And importantly, what infrastructure, investments, and marketing strategies would have to be employed to scale up this business model? Would it be a mass tourism model or a high-end one? The answers to these questions require careful thought and consideration, because remember, 3S tourism accounts for 26% of the region’s GDP; so, can non-3S tourism models contribute the same, in the short to medium term? This remains to be answered.
Interestingly, one of the climate change adaptation options identified in my master’s thesis was to close down the tourism sector and invest in another area. At the time of writing my thesis in 2010, that definitely was not a feasible adaptation option and was completely ruled out. Now in 2022, I am tempted to re-visit it. As far-fetched, way out, and outrageous as it sounds, I believe it is time for Caribbean peoples to look more closely at this option and consider refocusing time, efforts, and resources to another sector, namely agriculture; giving rise to the fourth S – soil.
This option is really not as bizarre as it sounds, given the pronouncements made by David Beasley, Head of the United Nations World Food Programme (UNWFP) in April and November 2020. Beasley warned that come 2021 and beyond, the Corona virus epidemic would lead to a famine of ‘biblical proportions’, globally, if countries/leaders didn’t do anything about it. This very poignant statement therefore highlights the need for countries/leaders to prepare for a potential worldwide food crisis in the coming weeks, months and years ahead.
Join me in Part 2 of this article as I unpack the words, ‘Biblical Proportions’, and discuss the history of agriculture in the Caribbean, as well as some of the challenges facing the sector. In Part 3 and onwards, we will discuss a few niche markets for Caribbean agricultural products, opportunities such as agro-processing, the impact of ‘growing local’ on personal health; and how to combat climate change, specifically drought. Importantly, we will look at basic strategies that can help us initiate the vital transition from tourism to agriculture as the main economic driver for the region, even as we tackle the impending famine and move towards long term food security.
References:
- Caribbean Tourism and Development, Zappino 2005
- Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean 2020
- World Trade Organisation 2019
- State of the Caribbean Climate Report 2020
- Corona Virus Worldometer – July 12, 2022
- Caribbean Tourism Organisation, 2021
- Rediscover Jamaica Campaign, the Jamaica Tourist Board 2020